Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock Analysis

CMG Stock  USD 37.54  0.43  1.13%   
Below is the normalized historical share price chart for Chipotle Mexican Grill extending back to January 26, 2006. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of Chipotle Mexican stands at 37.54, as last reported on the 21st of February, with the highest price reaching 38.29 and the lowest price hitting 37.27 during the day.
IPO Date
26th of January 2006
200 Day MA
42.7007
50 Day MA
37.8886
Beta
0.996
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
Chipotle Mexican Grill holds a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.602. At this time, Chipotle Mexican's Short Term Debt is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Chipotle Mexican's current Net Debt To EBITDA is estimated to increase to 4.21, while Long Term Debt To Capitalization is projected to decrease to 0.50. Chipotle Mexican's financial risk is the risk to Chipotle Mexican stockholders that is caused by an increase in debt.

Asset vs Debt

Equity vs Debt

Chipotle Mexican's liquidity is one of the most fundamental aspects of both its future profitability and its ability to meet different types of ongoing financial obligations. Chipotle Mexican's cash, liquid assets, total liabilities, and shareholder equity can be utilized to evaluate how much leverage the Company is using to sustain its current operations. For traders, higher-leverage indicators usually imply a higher risk to shareholders. In addition, it helps Chipotle Stock's retail investors understand whether an upcoming fall or rise in the market will negatively affect Chipotle Mexican's stakeholders.
For many companies, including Chipotle Mexican, marketable securities, inventories, and receivables are the most common assets that could be converted to cash. However, for Chipotle Mexican Grill, the most critical issue when managing liquidity is ensuring that current assets are properly aligned with current liabilities. If they are not, Chipotle Mexican's management will need to obtain alternative financing to ensure there are always enough cash equivalents on the balance sheet to meet obligations.
Price Book
16.7024
Enterprise Value Ebitda
21.6112
Price Sales
4.1623
Shares Float
1.3 B
Wall Street Target Price
44.3235
At this time, Chipotle Mexican's Other Stockholder Equity is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Chipotle Mexican's current Common Stock is estimated to increase to about 13.7 M, while Common Stock Total Equity is projected to decrease to roughly 286.8 K. . At this time, Chipotle Mexican's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is most likely to slightly grow in the upcoming years. The Chipotle Mexican's current Price To Book Ratio is estimated to increase to 18.35, while Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is projected to decrease to 21.61.
Chipotle Mexican Grill is undervalued with Real Value of 44.31 and Target Price of 44.32. The main objective of Chipotle Mexican stock analysis is to determine its intrinsic value, which is an estimate of what Chipotle Mexican Grill is worth, separate from its market price. There are two main types of Chipotle Mexican's stock analysis: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
The Chipotle Mexican stock is traded in the USA on New York Stock Exchange, with the market opening at 09:30:00 and closing at 16:00:00 every Mon,Tue,Wed,Thu,Fri except for officially observed holidays in the USA. Here, you can get updates on important government artifacts, including earning estimates, SEC corporate filings, announcements, and Chipotle Mexican's ongoing operational relationships across important fundamental and technical indicators.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Chipotle Mexican Grill. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.

Chipotle Stock Analysis Notes

About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.91. Chipotle Mexican Grill had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 50:1 split on the 26th of June 2024. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California. Chipotle Mexican operates under Restaurants classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 100000 people. For more info on Chipotle Mexican Grill please contact Brian Niccol at 949 524 4000 or go to https://www.chipotle.com.

Chipotle Mexican Quarterly Total Revenue

2.98 Billion

Chipotle Mexican Grill Investment Alerts

Chipotle Mexican is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Chipotle Mexican has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Restaurateurs have become millionaires

Chipotle Largest EPS Surprises

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Chipotle Mexican's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2020-07-22
2020-06-300.0070.0080.00114 
2007-02-15
2006-12-310.00560.00660.00117 
2006-03-13
2005-12-310.00220.00320.00145 
View All Earnings Estimates

Chipotle Mexican Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Scores

Chipotle Mexican's ESG score is a quantitative measure that evaluates Chipotle Mexican's performance and commitment regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. These scores are becoming increasingly crucial in investment decision-making processes, providing insights into non-financial aspects of Chipotle Mexican's operations that may have significant financial implications and affect Chipotle Mexican's stock price as well as guide investors towards more socially responsible investments.

Chipotle Mexican Thematic Classifications

In addition to having Chipotle Mexican stock in your portfolios, you can add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your favorite investment opportunity, you can then obtain an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility. If you are a result-oriented investor, you can benefit from optimizing one of our existing themes to build an efficient portfolio against your specific investing outlook.
SRI Sustainable Growth Idea
SRI Sustainable Growth
Large and mid-sized companies that operate under the guidelines of socially responsible investing - SRI

Chipotle Stock Institutional Investors

Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.p.2025-06-30
21.5 M
American Century Companies Inc2025-06-30
21.3 M
Hhg Plc2025-06-30
18.7 M
Norges Bank2025-06-30
17.8 M
Northern Trust Corp2025-06-30
13.8 M
Capital Research Global Investors2025-06-30
13.3 M
Franklin Resources Inc2025-06-30
13 M
Wellington Management Company Llp2025-06-30
12.5 M
Ubs Asset Mgmt Americas Inc2025-06-30
12.5 M
Vanguard Group Inc2025-06-30
123.5 M
Blackrock Inc2025-06-30
111.7 M
Note, although Chipotle Mexican's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Chipotle Market Capitalization

The company currently falls under 'Large-Cap' category with a total capitalization of 49.64 B.

Chipotle Profitablity

The company has Net Profit Margin of 0.13 %, which implies that it may need a different competitive strategy as even a very small decline in it revenue may erase profits and result in a net loss. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of 0.15 %, which entails that for every 100 dollars of revenue, it generated $0.15 of operating income.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets 0.17  0.18 
Return On Capital Employed 0.26  0.27 
Return On Assets 0.17  0.18 
Return On Equity 0.54  0.57 

Management Efficiency

Chipotle Mexican Grill has Return on Asset of 0.1388 % which means that on every $100 spent on assets, it made $0.1388 of profit. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows a return on shareholders' equity (ROE) of 0.4736 %, implying that it generated $0.4736 on every 100 dollars invested. Chipotle Mexican's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Chipotle Mexican manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. The Chipotle Mexican's current Return On Tangible Assets is estimated to increase to 0.18. The Chipotle Mexican's current Return On Capital Employed is estimated to increase to 0.27. At this time, Chipotle Mexican's Non Currrent Assets Other are most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Chipotle Mexican's current Other Current Assets is estimated to increase to about 126.5 M, while Net Tangible Assets are projected to decrease to roughly 1.8 B.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Book Value Per Share 2.12  2.22 
Tangible Book Value Per Share 2.10  2.21 
Enterprise Value Over EBITDA 24.88  20.26 
Price Book Value Ratio 17.48  18.35 
Enterprise Value Multiple 24.88  20.26 
Price Fair Value 17.48  18.35 
Enterprise Value23 B24.2 B
Chipotle Mexican Grill has shown resilience through effective management strategies. Our analysis examines how these strategies influence financial outcomes and investor returns which helps in understanding the stock's long-term potential.
Operating Margin
0.1521
Profit Margin
0.1288
Beta
0.996
Return On Assets
0.1388
Return On Equity
0.4736

Technical Drivers

As of the 21st of February, Chipotle Mexican shows the Downside Deviation of 1.78, mean deviation of 1.6, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1093. Chipotle Mexican Grill technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Please confirm Chipotle Mexican Grill standard deviation, value at risk, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and semi variance to decide if Chipotle Mexican Grill is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 37.54 per share. Given that Chipotle Mexican has jensen alpha of 0.1745, we suggest you to validate Chipotle Mexican Grill's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Price Movement Analysis

The output start index for this execution was nine with a total number of output elements of fifty-two. The Simple Moving Average indicator is calculated by adding the closing price of Chipotle Mexican for a given number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods. It is used to smooth out Chipotle Mexican Grill short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Insider Trading Activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Chipotle Mexican insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Chipotle Mexican's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Chipotle Mexican insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.
 
Matthew Bush over a week ago
Insider Trading
 
Matthew Bush over a month ago
Insider Trading
 
Matthew Bush over two months ago
Insider Trading
 
Jamie McConnell over six months ago
Insider Trading
 
Jamie McConnell over a year ago
Insider Trading
 
Jamie McConnell over a year ago
Insider Trading
 
Jamie McConnell over a year ago
Insider Trading
 
Jamie McConnell over a year ago
Insider Trading
 
Jamie McConnell over a year ago
Insider Trading
 
Jamie McConnell over a year ago
Insider Trading
 
Christopher Brandt over a year ago
Disposition of 145000 shares by Christopher Brandt of Chipotle Mexican subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Jamie McConnell over a year ago
Insider Trading

Chipotle Mexican Outstanding Bonds

Chipotle Mexican issues bonds to finance its operations. Corporate bonds make up one of the largest components of the U.S. bond market, which is considered the world's largest securities market. Chipotle Mexican Grill uses the proceeds from bond sales for a wide variety of purposes, including financing ongoing mergers and acquisitions, buying new equipment, investing in research and development, buying back their own stock, paying dividends to shareholders, and even refinancing existing debt. Most Chipotle bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when Chipotle Mexican Grill has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.

Chipotle Mexican Predictive Daily Indicators

Chipotle Mexican intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Chipotle Mexican stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

Chipotle Mexican Corporate Filings

F4
17th of February 2026
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
13A
13th of February 2026
An amended filing to the original Schedule 13G
ViewVerify
F4
10th of February 2026
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
10K
4th of February 2026
Annual report required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of a company financial performance
ViewVerify
8K
3rd of February 2026
Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about
ViewVerify
8K
12th of January 2026
Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about
ViewVerify
13A
7th of January 2026
An amended filing to the original Schedule 13G
ViewVerify
F4
12th of December 2025
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify

Chipotle Mexican Forecast Models

Chipotle Mexican's time-series forecasting models are one of many Chipotle Mexican's stock analysis techniques aimed at predicting future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Chipotle Mexican's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Chipotle Mexican Bond Ratings

Chipotle Mexican Grill financial ratings play a critical role in determining how much Chipotle Mexican have to pay to access credit markets, i.e., the amount of interest on their issued debt. The threshold between investment-grade and speculative-grade ratings has important market implications for Chipotle Mexican's borrowing costs.
Piotroski F Score
7
StrongView
Beneish M Score
(2.41)
Unlikely ManipulatorView

Chipotle Mexican Grill Debt to Cash Allocation

Many companies such as Chipotle Mexican, eventually find out that there is only so much market out there to be conquered, and adding the next product or service is only half as profitable per unit as their current endeavors. Eventually, the company will reach a point where cash flows are strong, and extra cash is available but not fully utilized. In this case, the company may start buying back its stock from the public or issue more dividends.
Chipotle Mexican Grill has 9.85 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.6, which is OK given its current industry classification. Chipotle Mexican Grill has a current ratio of 1.29, demonstrating that it is in a questionable position to pay out its financial commitments when the payables are due. That said, strategic use of leverage may enable Chipotle to fund expansion initiatives and generate superior returns.

Chipotle Mexican Total Assets Over Time

Chipotle Mexican Assets Financed by Debt

The debt-to-assets ratio shows the degree to which Chipotle Mexican uses debt to finance its assets. It includes both long-term and short-term borrowings maturing within one year. It also includes both tangible and intangible assets, such as goodwill.

Chipotle Mexican Debt Ratio

    
  115.0   
It seems as most of the Chipotle Mexican's assets are financed through debt. Typically, companies with high debt-to-asset ratios are said to be highly leveraged. The higher the ratio, the greater risk will be associated with the Chipotle Mexican's operation. In addition, a high debt-to-assets ratio may indicate a low borrowing capacity of Chipotle Mexican, which in turn will lower the firm's financial flexibility.

Chipotle Mexican Corporate Bonds Issued

Most Chipotle bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when Chipotle Mexican Grill has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.

Chipotle Short Long Term Debt Total

Short Long Term Debt Total

10.34 Billion

At this time, Chipotle Mexican's Short and Long Term Debt Total is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years.

About Chipotle Stock Analysis

Stock analysis is the technique used by a trader or investor to examine and evaluate how Chipotle Mexican prices is reacting to, or reflecting on a current market direction and economic conditions. It can be used to make informed decisions about market timing, and when buying or selling Chipotle shares will generate the highest return on investment. We also built our stock analysis module to help investors to gain an insight into the world economy as a whole, the stock market, thematic ideas. a specific sector, or an individual Stock such as Chipotle Mexican. By using and applying Chipotle Stock analysis, traders can create a robust methodology for identifying Chipotle entry and exit points for their positions.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Pretax Profit Margin 0.17  0.18 
Operating Profit Margin 0.17  0.18 
Net Profit Margin 0.13  0.14 
Gross Profit Margin 0.22  0.26 

Current Chipotle Analysis - Recommendations

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Chipotle analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Chipotle analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target PriceConsensus# of Analysts
44.32Strong Buy34Odds
Chipotle Mexican Grill current and past analyst recommendations published by a number of research institutions as well as average analyst consensus.
Most Chipotle analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Chipotle stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Chipotle Mexican Grill, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Chipotle conference calls.
Chipotle Analyst Advice Details

Chipotle Stock Analysis Indicators

Chipotle Mexican Grill stock analysis indicators help investors evaluate how Chipotle Mexican stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing and determine when trading Chipotle Mexican shares will generate the highest return on investment. By understating and applying Chipotle Mexican stock analysis, traders can identify Chipotle Mexican position entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Begin Period Cash Flow778.4 M
Total Stockholder Equity2.8 B
Capital Lease Obligations5.1 B
Property Plant And Equipment Net7.1 B
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB
Cash350.5 M
50 Day M A37.8886
Net Interest Income73.7 M
Total Current Liabilities1.2 B
Forward Price Earnings30.7692
Investments631.3 M
Stock Based Compensation119.5 M
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.3 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-35.1 M
Tax Provision473.8 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y0.04
Accounts Payable212.8 M
Net Debt9.5 B
Other Operating Expenses9.9 B
Non Current Assets Total7.5 B
Liabilities And Stockholders EquityB
Non Currrent Assets Other130.8 M

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